You have full access to this open access article. This is the first large-scale comparative study to search for macro-level determinants of the realization of short-term fertility intentions across European countries. Using the unique follow-up feature of the Generations and Gender Survey and adopting rigorous definitions of intentions and outcomes, it reports on the level of fulfilment and finds clear heterogeneity across European countries. Using a multilevel, multivariate approach, it examines the nature of macro-level factors that may explain differences in the realization of fertility intentions.
Based on our analysis, we conclude that labour market stability as measured by fluctuations in the unemployment rate , price stability, heavy welfare state involvement, and the dominance of certain attitudinal conditions all support the greater realization of short-term fertility intentions.
Although fertility intention is a very goodโin fact, arguably the bestโpredictor of childbirth at the individual level Schoen et al. This is particularly true in the case of short-term, time-dependent intentions Dommermuth et al. The mismatch between intended family size or any related ideals of family size and fertility is also clearly visible when aggregate, country-level measures are compared Goldstein et al.
Yet, the study of intention remains at the forefront in terms of understanding fertility behaviour Berrington, ; Lutz, ; Philipov, a , and we believe that studying the correspondence between short-term intentions and the realization of those intentions can contribute especially to an understanding of reproductive decision making Liefbroer et al. Analysis of the link between intention and realization at the individual level reveals that the discrepancy is not unusual, and several factors influencing the link have been identified.
Besides biological and emotional factors Ajzen, , the dynamics of partnership relations or unexpected life-course events may modify intentions and lead to their postponement or abandonment Liefbroer, , with the consequence that people forgo having children. Moreover, country comparisons highlight the fact that there is considerable country-specific heterogeneity in the rate of realization. However, these analyses do not address the characteristics of individual countries and societies that may cause the differences.
