This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively. The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense.
The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents. Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise. The aurora is not visible during daylight hours. The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a km away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right.
The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies. It is closely related to the ground-induced currents that impact electric power transmission.
For many people, the aurora is a beautiful nighttime phenomenon that is worth traveling to arctic regions just to observe. It is the only way for most people to actually experience space weather. These links provide a discussion of the aurora phenomena and tips for the best opportunities to view aurora at various locations around the world.
The model uses the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field measured at the L1 orbit position at 1. An estimate of aurora viewing probability can be derived by assuming a linear relationship to the intensity of the aurora. On occasion, the input solar wind data are either contaminated or unavailable. When this occurs, there is no forecast lead time. Viereck SWPC implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts.
