There is a short window of time for Russia to midwife a political solution in Syria and translate its military success into a diplomatic achievement that can lay the groundwork for a durable and sustainable peace in Syria.
The eighth round of the Geneva talks on the Syrian conflict began last week, and as with previous rounds, the prospects for face-to-face negotiations between the Syrian regime and the opposition are dim. Let us not kid ourselves. These are not negotiations between equals. Thanks to military support from his allies in Moscow and Tehran, President Bashar Al-Assad has shifted the conflict trajectory irreversibly in his favor.
The Syrian opposition military formations no longer present an existential threat to the Syrian regime and regional and international supporters of the opposition are no longer willing to invest the resources necessary to reverse these dynamics. Moreover, the winding down of the war against ISIS eliminates another obstacle to the regime regaining more of the Syrian territory it lost over the course of the seven-year civil war. Absent a change in US policy, the most likely scenario over the next three to four years is that the Assad regime will advance slowly across Syria.
Assad comes to Geneva least incentivized to make serious concessions at the negotiation table. On the one hand, he has always considered the Geneva process a sideshow. On the other hand, he sees the reference points for the Geneva process including UN Security Council Resolution and the June 30, , Geneva Communique, no longer apply given the military realities on the ground.
UN Special envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura has limited the agenda for this round of talks to the principles for a political solution in Syria, constitutional amendments and elections. It is not clear whether presidential elections are part of these discussions at all.
